Hamish Rutherford: Streamlined BP now in fit state to give Shell a shock

TONY Hayward showed no sign that he felt under pressure following BP's disappointing results yesterday, and for good reason. Make no mistake about the significance of the blip. Hayward, who earned a PhD at Edinburgh before starting with BP as a rig geologist in Aberdeen, has the company in roaring form compared with the state it was in when he inherited it back in 2007.

BP was dead last in the list of the FTSE 100's performers yesterday from the time the London Stock Exchange opened to the final bell, after its profits for the last three months of 2009 – and hence the year as a whole – came in below expectations.

But over the longer term, the performance of BP, and its shares, is significantly better. Over the past three, six and 12 months, the group has outperformed Shell, Britain's other oil behemoth, and the benchmark against which it will always be compared.

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Despite its 2009 profits being dragged down by a collapse in margins at its fuel refining business, BP has made vast strides to turn its previously inefficient upstream business into a much leaner beast.

Hayward talked early in his reign about BP "closing the performance gap" with its peer group, a tacit admission that Shell was operating more efficiently.

Asked yesterday if the "gap" between BP and its rivals was now gone, or even surpassed, Hayward dismissed the question in a way that made it very clear that he thought it had.

"You can all see what happens on Thursday," Hayward told yesterday's press conference, alluding to Shell's own results presentation, due tomorrow. "The numbers will speak for themselves."

The numbers for BP painted the picture of a company able to maintain its dividend despite a sharp drop in commodity prices compared with 2008, without dipping heavily into cash reserves, a feat which did not come about easily.

Over the past three years BP has undergone a major internal overhaul, with a net reduction of some 7,500 staff. During the past 12 months, the focus has turned to the supply chain, with impressive savings.

Oil service companies and contractors, which were in many cases growing accustomed to naming their price, were under extreme pressure to justify costs.

Where once service companies expected contract options to be extended as a matter of course, they are now being re- negotiated wherever possible.

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In November, BP awarded a new consolidated 100 million North Sea contract to Petrofac, after hotly-contested tendering rounds with Wood Group and PSN, the Scottish companies that previously held most of the work.

Previously, with profits booming in the sector, oil companies appeared to adopt a "don't rock the boat" approach, placing much higher value on continuity of service than efficiency. It simply did not seem to occur to the industry that major cost savings could be made.

BP has proved that there is a better way and tomorrow the numbers are likely to tell Shell it is time to play catch-up.

Turning the heat up on profit-hungry utility firms

ONE of the unintended consequences of the intense scrutiny that has been placed on bankers in recent months has been a lifting of pressure placed on the once-vilified utility sector.

Back in 2008 there were high-level calls for a windfall tax to be placed on electricity and gas suppliers, amid claims that excessive profits were being made at the same time as more and more pensioners were being forced to sit in the cold.

But since focus turned on to – and remains on – a banking sector that nearly caused economic disaster, less scrutiny has been placed on, well, any other company under the sun.

Today the issue of utility bills on consumers may resurface when Scottish & Southern Energy – Britain's second largest energy retailer – updates the City on trading, just weeks after heavy snow brought the UK to a bitterly cold standstill.

While the evidence has largely been based on logical assumption, Perth-based SSE will face questions on whether a surge in energy consumption during the cold snap will lead to the company making more profit than expected.

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Like everything else, the picture will be more complicated than critics would have us believe, but with the economy still struggling and an election looming, the heat will be turned up if the public believes higher bills are only there to warm up investors.

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